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February 18, 2015
By contrast the UK economy continues to perform relatively well, although 2005 marked a slight downturn in output growth with GDP totaling 1.8%. The UK economy has continued to outperform the Eurozone as a whole, and in particular the other large and established European nations.Growth in Asia’s emerging economies remains strong, although in 2005 output growth fell to 7.3% and is expected to fall back further in 2006 to 6.9%. The downturn in the rate of growth is primarily due to the planned tightening of fiscal policy in China and a potential slowdown in global demand. Regional disparities have continued to widen, as growth in China and India continues to forge ahead, while expansion in other parts of the region remains relatively muted.
Growth in India has remained robust, partly due to the continued expansion of the service sector bolstered by outsourcing from Europe and North America. Economic activity in India is expected to moderate from the strong pace experienced over the previous two years to growth of 6.3% in 2006.The expansion of China has continued to exceed expectations and boost output for the region, with GDP growth expected to reach 9.0% in 2005, and forecast to ease moderately to 8.2% in 2006.
The continuing recovery of the Japanese economy also provides encouraging news for the region, driven by an upturn in domestic demand. Recent surveys suggest that this will continue with signals of growing business confidence and investment. The latest forecasts for the region as a whole project solid growth, aided by strong exports and domestic demand.GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have totalled 4.8% in 2005, marginally below previous IMF forecasts. Rising oil prices have impacted upon the oil importing countries, although overall the effect on output has not been considerable.
More positively, there appear to have been improvements in the region’s macroeconomic stability, aided by ongoing structural reforms. Growth is forecast to accelerate to 5.9% in 2006 which, if achieved, would be the strongest expansion since the early 1970s.The office property sector enjoyed solid performance in 2005 in most of the North American regional markets. Vacancy rates declined and rental rates began to move higher. Of course, the pace of improvement was not uniform across all of the regional markets.
This technique for business valuation amount of improvement mirrored, to a substantial degree, the basic economic conditions in the respective markets. The markets situated along the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of the US continued to experience robust absorption of office space, which in some cases exceeded expectations. In the interior of the continent, regional markets that had languished since 2001 finally began to show improvement.
The overall US national office vacancy rate ended 2005 at an estimated 12.1%, down from 13.5% at the end of 2004. Again, for the nation as a whole, average quoted rents were up about 2%. These averages mask a wide divergence of performance at the regional level. In New York City, for example, the vacancy rate declined by three percentage points in 2005, ending the year with a vacancy rate that is well below 10%. In contrast, the vacancy rate in Detroit remained nearly four percentage points above the national average, with few signs of improvement on the horizon. At the national level, approximately 125 million sq ft of office space was absorbed.
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The consensus economic forecast for the US economy points to continued GDP growth in the 3% to 3.75% range in 2006/07. This pace of growth implies total employment gains of about two million each year. Office employment will increase by about 600,000 each year, implying annual absorption of nearly 125 million sq ft. These projections are based on a slowing of employment growth in the latter part of 2006 and in 2007, although this slowing has not yet been seen in the early 2006 employment statistics.
Based on current levels of construction activity, demand for space will be double the amount of new space added to the market in 2006 and 2007. This is expected to lead to a decline in the national average vacancy rate of 1.25 percentage points by late 2006 or early 2007. With the national vacancy rate approaching 10% by mid-2007, rents will then start to increase more rapidly.
For New York City, the vacancy rate declined by nearly three percentage points in 2005, with nearly 10 million sq ft of office space being absorbed. Other property conveyancers are finance and business professional services sectors recorded employment growth in the range of 2.5% to 3.5%. In addition, the demand for space from the education and healthcare sectors was strong. By the end of 2005, employment among the legal services firms also began to increase.
The New York City and Washington, D.C. property sectors were the stars in this region of the US in 2005. However, even for these solid performers, some substantial differences in the respective market characteristics were apparent.
The demand for complex business reorganizations and refinancing is accelerating in the US economy, and this demand plays to the strong points of the New York City business sector. Several major New York City- based financial firms have already announced that they anticipate increasing their employment levels by 8% in 2006. With these projections of employment growth, the vacancy rate should decline by two more percentage points by early- to mid-2007.
It will not be until late 2007 or 2008 that this space starts to become available for occupancy. There are many plans in the works for new development, but this space cannot reach the market until 2010 or later. Clearly, the strength of the New York City office sector has been enhanced by this lack of new supply.
The Washington, D.C. metro office market has also been performing strongly. It ended 2005 with a vacancy rate of 9.2%, down from 10.5% at the beginning of the year.
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Quoted rents were up by almost 4%, reflecting the strong conditions in this market for the last several years. Employment growth has been particularly robust in this market since 2003. Office employment was increased by 3% in both 2004 and 2005 and by 4% in 2003. In fact, the level of office employment continued to grow right throughout the national recession of 2000/2001.
This sustained employment growth in D.C. over the past five years has encouraged developers to continue providing new space even as the national recession and the slow growth that followed discouraged commercial construction in other metro areas, including New York City.
As a result, the Washington, D.C. market has a bountiful flow of new construction. In 2005, about 7 million sq ft was supplied in the entire metro area. Consequently, even though nearly 12 million sq ft was absorbed, the overall vacancy rate declined by only a little over one percentage point.
Looking ahead, it is expected that around 11 million sq ft of new office space will be delivered to this market over the next two years. Employment growth is likely to remain strong in the D.C. metro area, but the current employment forecast for this market is for growth that can absorb 10 million sq ft to 12 million sq ft. Therefore, the supply/demand balance will not tip in either direction.
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Boston, Philadelphia and the Northern New Jersey markets all improved in 2005. However, the vacancy rate in each of these three markets is at or above the national average. Even though Boston has an impressive array of high-tech companies, overall employment growth has been modest. Several major companies headquartered in this city have been acquired by firms located outside the region, putting a damper on employment growth.
Sections of the Philadelphia and Northern New Jersey markets enjoy strong employment growth and demand for office space. For example, the sub-markets along Philadelphia’s Main Line – west of Center City – have continued to perform well. In Northern New Jersey, the development along the Hudson River continues to attract the attention of major tenants.
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For most of the post-World War II period, the demand for office space and the development of that space was synonymous with Atlanta. Since 2000, this pattern has changed as the industrial base of the Southeast has been driven out of the US. During the last four years, Atlanta’s office market has tended to lag behind overall national performance.
The vacancy rate in this market is still close to 14%. Over the next two years, conditions should continue to improve, with the demand for space falling in the range of 6 million sq ft to 7.5 million sq ft, and supply of new space equalling about 4 million sq ft.The focus in this region of the country has shifted to Florida, in particular the South and Central Florida markets.Employment growth has been strong in these markets for a variety of reasons. The Latin American economies have improved, and this section of the US has close commercial ties with Latin America. In addition, the stream of people and companies from the northern sections of the US is creating a major need for business services that require office space.
Orlando, in Central Florida, has evolved into a diverse economy with an impressive mix of industries. While known as a venue for entertainment services, a variety of manufacturing, distribution and high-tech companies have relocated into the region.Until 2005, employment growth in both Dallas and Houston had lagged behind the national average since 2000. This is in sharp contrast to their performance in the 1990s.
During that decade, the Southwest regional markets in Texas and Arizona prospered. Employment growth in Dallas, Houston and Phoenix were nearly double the national average for some years. The surging investment in the high-tech telecom industry located in Dallas and the concentration of the energy business into Houston contributed to the rapid growth in these two Texan metropolises. Phoenix benefited from a massive influx of people and businesses from California and other parts of the US.
Few barriers inhibit property development in these metropolitan areas property valuations services and this ease of development nearly always casts an actual or potential shadow over these property markets. Excessive office development in all three markets during the late 1990s has somewhat chastened lenders and even developers in the Texas markets. Steady employment growth in Phoenix has prompted developers to keep up the pace of office development; consequently, while the respective economies are doing much better, improvements in the office property markets are not proceeding quickly.
Low business and living costs, robust energy markets, stronger high-tech capital spending and strong population growth have finally revived these regional economies.
By the end of 2007, office employment growth is expected to lead to the absorption of nearly 8 million sq ft in the Dallas/Fort Worth metropolitan area, but new supply of space will approach 5 million sq ft. The balance is more favorable in Houston, where only about 2 million sq ft of new space will be added, while demand will be close to 7 million sq ft. In Phoenix, though, in excess of 8 million sq ft of office space will be added over the next two years and demand will equal about 7 million sq ft.
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November 29, 2014
The retail property market is at the top of its game in terms of both leasing and investment. Consumers have carried not only the retail market, but the entire economy through the recession of 2001 and the jobless recovery of 2002 and 2003.Atlanta tops the list of retail markets that are likely to generate the strongest investment returns over the next five years, thanks to a rapidly growing household base. With the exception of Washington, DC, eight of the remaining markets in the top 10 list are in the West or Southwest (including Texas), indicating the importance of dynamic population growth to retailers.
Retail sales in Canada grew modestly in 2003 providing support for the retail property sector. Enclosed malls continued their strong performance in major cities; in secondary provincial markets, they have to work harder to retain tenants, particularly in communities with new power center developments. Street- front retail is experiencing a resurgence in shopper popularity and tenant demand, pushing up rental rates on premier fashion streets, especially in Toronto and Vancouver. Demand for retail investment product remains strong among retail-focused institutional funds for the higher-valued property and among private investors for the moderate-valued assets. Capitalization rates range from 8.0 percent in primary markets to 11.5 percent in secondary ones, with yields lower on high-end fashion streets.
Mexico’s retail construction volume remained strong in 2003, a pattern encouraged by relatively tight occupancy levels, which hovered around 5 percent or less during the last half of the year. Base rents remained steady. Trends include escalating land prices with a growing number of land leases and partnering arrangements. Large, older and often empty boxes have become attractive to call centers. In South America, a lackluster economy and high interest rates, particularly in Brazil, will subdue development in 2004. But large US retailers continue to target South America for expansion in the right locations. The influx of retail giants like Wal-Mart, JC Penney, Home Depot and Starbucks will persist. In addition, fast food chains, clothiers and convenience stores are maintaining a steady stream of activity in the region.
Low interest rates and sustained household consumption growth have maintained strong demand for retail space during 2003 and consequently rental levels have moderately increased in some European markets. Although consumer expenditure growth has slowed significantly, the retail sector has continued to out-perform both office and industrial sectors.
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Central and Eastern European markets remain very attractive. Similarly Spain and Portugal where rents are lower than other European countries, or Italy and Greece where retail warehouses are still limited and shopping centres are still relatively recent. The Czech Republic and Poland offer good opportunities in 2004 due to the benefits of entering the EU which include the elimination of some barriers to entry and currency risk. In addition, the Moscow market continues to develop and, with incomes constantly growing, opportunities to develop shopping centers are likely to increase.
Two projections have been made for 2004. Firstly, overall market strength as a retail center has been measured and secondly, retail rental projections have been evaluated.
The top fifteen centers in relation to overall retail strength in 2004 are: Dublin, London, Milan, Prague, Leeds, Amsterdam, Manchester, Birmingham, Sheffield, Cardiff, Paris, Madrid, Glasgow, Edinburgh and Newcastle. of property valuation services A number of smaller or non-traditional cities are included in this list due to their rental growth potential for next year and the health of their current market. These projections ignore the physical size of the retail economy but rather focus on the strength and potential of the retail economy for 2004. Many of Europe’s top retail cities are projected to show no rental growth in 2004.
Property valuers provide such crucial services top ten projected rental growth cities for 2004 are as follows: Dublin (10 percent), Milan, Paris, Lisbon, Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle, Leeds, Madrid, Birmingham and Cardiff. Other centres that have flat or zero growth projections for 2004 include: London, Frankfurt, Munich, Brussels, Amsterdam, and Prague.
This period of low or flat rental growth for 2004 illustrates an industry-wide stabilization period in reaction to global and more local economic conditions and influences. However, the European retail market as a property asset continues to perform very well in the current uncertain times, both in terms of investment and future growth potential.
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September 20, 2014
South African retailing is the strongest in the sub-Saharan continent and continues to offer excellent potential to retailers interested in an African presence. South Africa also tends to be the traditional first port of call for foreign retailers entering the market.The construction of five shopping centers within one year in Gaborone, providing approximately 85,000 sq m of new retail space, is likely to prove excessive for a small city. Concerns of traffic congestion and fears over security in the CBD have also led retailers to move to suburban shopping centres in Nairobi.
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Kampala, Johannesburg, Lagos, Nairobi and Blantyre are all expected to experience retail rental growth rates of between 2 percent to 10 percent in 2004. These markets are generally safer and better established with respect to retail and also presently carry lower investment risk market value of the property.
Lusaka and Harare will see no rental growth for the next year. Demand for retail space and the current lack of supply in some African markets maintains relatively low vacancy rates across the main African shopping centers although little speculative development has occurred as the risks involved in investment are considered to be high. Africa generally offers higher yields to the investor who accepts certain risks which are associated with investing in non-traditional markets.
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Unlike the commercial market, the residential sector is in the national consciousness in many countries around the world. There are as many forecasts as there are people minded to express them and over- reporting leads to a good supply of information and opinion which ironically leaves investors often none the wiser. In many countries, the importance of residential stock has been exacerbated by shortages in supply and rising prices which support the ongoing emergence of residential property as a mainstream investment asset class for both private and institutional investors. The fortunes of the residential sector are now inextricably viewed as a barometric measure of economic prosperity in many territories.
With the exception of some of the troubled economies of Asia and the emerging markets of Africa, nearly all residential markets have seen significant price enhancement over the past one to two years. In the US and the UK, forecasts of collapse have proved unfounded and the market continues to move steadily forward. Inevitably, a combination of factors has conspired to produce generally strong performance.
Real estate market values multi-housing (apartment) investment market is most sophisticated in the United States due both to the cultural landscape and the ample supply of large-scale apartment properties that are attractive to institutional investors. But there is a growing appetite among investors in other parts of the world for apartment assets.
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Low interest rates have fostered an unprecedented growth in residential borrowing in many markets. Supply shortages, compounded by land-use planning inefficiencies, have created premium pricing in many key markets and sectors. The growing perception that residential assets may provide a solid, annuity-style product to fund retirement in an increasingly uncertain investment environment is also relevant in many locations with multiple property ownership rising sharply.
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The multiplier effects of the residential market are both obvious and important. Equity withdrawal from appreciated assets is running at record levels in many western markets and this has underpinned a strong consumer economy. Indeed, a strong housing sector has arguably kept a number of economies out of recession and lessened the economic and social impact in those locations which have moved into economic contraction.
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It is expected that these trends will continue and that Los Angeles can readily absorb over 10 million sq ft each year for the next two years. Construction on only about 3 million sq ft is now underway in the L.A. market. With a current vacancy rate in the range of 3% to 4%, the demand for space will remain intense.
On the East Coast of the US, the demand for industrial space in the Northern New Jersey market is also robust. The vacancy rate is 7.5%, and close to 5 million sq ft of space was absorbed in 2005. Construction of new space will equal roughly half that amount. Again, trade flows with Europe and the Far East are pushing demand for space.
Houston has picked up some of the trade that went through New Orleans. In addition, its chemical industry has experienced a large increase in demand. These factors have resulted in a significant improvement in that market, producing a 2005 year-end vacancy rate of 7%.
The vacancy rates in Atlanta, Chicago and Dallas remain above the national average, although these rates have declined over the last year. All three of these metros are major regional distribution centers, and logistics companies have tended to concentrate their activities in these markets at the expense of smaller sub-regional locations. As a result, the pace of new construction and absorption continued in these markets as local business conditions languished. Industrial activity is now growing as well as spending on infrastructure. These trends have helped the demand for industrial space in all three markets.
The lead time required to construct industrial space is substantially less than it is for office or even residential developments. As a result, it is usually the case that tight demand conditions can be alleviated fairly quickly by Property Valuation Experts. So far, the major West Coast markets have experienced such rapid growth in demand that supply has not kept pace. This is not the usual situation, and the supply/demand balance has to be constantly monitored on a market-by-market basis to avoid deteriorating fundamentals.
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Prospects for the industrial sector within the EU appear healthy as confidence improves and growth accelerates in the continent’s major economies. During December 2005, manufacturing growth grew at the fastest rate in 16 months – largely due to greater export volumes fuelled by a weakening of the euro against the dollar in 2005.
Despite high oil prices, there is a growing belief among manufacturers and economists that the economic outlook for both EU and non-EU countries is positive after a sustained period of stagnation. The outsourcing of logistics functions to accession and pre-accession countries continues to fuel demand for third party logistics service providers across Europe. This factor has been driven by increasing cost pressure upon manufacturers and retailers and is a key driver of demand for large units.
The UK warehouse investment market remains the most active in Europe. Total returns over the 12 months to January were at their highest in over five years at 18.4%. The market outlook also remains positive, as occupier demand strengthens and rents are anticipated to pick up in 2006.
The key Benelux markets, the major gateway to the Western European economies from the UK and beyond, are strengthening. In Belgium, Brussels and Antwerp are enjoying an improvement in occupier demand, although the impact of any recovery is yet to reach many secondary markets.
Prime distribution rents now stand at circa € 592 per sq m per annum with prime yields currently in the region of 7.5%. Occupational markets in the Netherlands are also picking up. Demand has emanated out from the traditional core markets, primarily the Amsterdam Airport Area and Rotterdam, with occupiers who were once focused on these areas willing to take premises elsewhere in the Netherlands or over the Belgium and German borders. Prime distribution yields in the Amsterdam area currently stand at 7.5%.
The weight of domestic and foreign capital chasing limited stock continues across Europe, placing downward pressure on yields. The low cost of borrowing within the Eurozone is helping to maintain strong investor demand, with the regional French and Spanish markets two of the principal targets.
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Eastern European yields have continued to converge with those in the more established markets. Prime yields in Prague now stand at 8.25%, having fallen 100 basis points over the last year, while logistics yields in Warsaw have tightened by the same margin.Bolder investors are investigating opportunities amongst the next round of accession countries such as Bulgaria, Romania and beyond to Russia, albeit with caution, as a fundamental lack of local market knowledge as well as political and economic uncertainty remain as barriers.
2005 saw sustained industrial growth across Asia Pacific, driven by solid performance from key economic centres. The island state of Singapore continues to benefit from its advantageous geographical position. Industrial rents in the market remained stable in 2005 as a surplus of supply kept rental values in check. However, the market is forecast to witness a return to growth, as global demand for high-tech and electrical goods are anticipated to increase.
The Sydney industrial market looks set to continue to strengthen. Incentives are reducing and strong tenant demand led to the overall vacancy rate falling sharply over the last year. The opening of the M7 corridor in particular helped to fuel tenant demand.Strong tenant demand in the Melbourne market has already led to an escalation in rental values on larger units, while smaller occupiers have demonstrated a preference for owner-occupation. The limited availability of high grade investment opportunities and strong demand has continued to produce downward pressure on yields across both the Sydney and Melbourne markets.
Business sentiment among Japan’s manufacturers has improved and third party logistics operators are likely to become active in the Tokyo industrial market again, buoying demand after a long period of stagnation.
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January 31, 2015
The majority of Africa’s industrial markets suffer from a lack of high grade infrastructure and the instability of many of the continent’s economies. Many commercial centres lack the sufficient industrial/logistics stock to attract tenants and a high level of caution is exercised by international investors.
Botswana’s economy has stalled after several decades of growth fuelled by the mining industry. Occupier demand for industrial property has suffered as a result, leading to downward pressure on rents in Gaborone which has been exacerbated by an oversupply of space in the market. Botswana’s second city, Francistown, has a limited availability of industrial stock. Alternatives exist well outside the city centre, but tenants are wary of locating too far out due to security and labour transportation concerns.
Demand for industrial space in Zimbabwe has been tempered by small enterprises, largely family run, established in response to economic hardships and the withdrawal of many major occupiers. Interest from large scale operators in Malawi is also limited as a number of important manufacturers have ceased operations over the last decade.
In East Africa strong localised demand exists, notably in Kampala and Dar es Salaam, with the creation of the East African Community Trade Area encompassing Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda aiding growth in the region.
The second general election in June 1999 marked a smooth political transition and was the tonic needed to consolidate the democratic drive and boost international investor confidence in the country. With the continuing trend of decentralisation taking place since the 1980s, the traditional downtown CBDs in the main cities have experienced a severe downturn, with Johannesburg hit the hardest. A number of major corporates are backing up organisations such as Business Against Crime and the Johannesburg Inner City Development Forum. find here properties price.
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Of the major commercial property types, retail has turned in the strongest performance over the past three years. In the US, this is evident from a glance at the NCREIF Property Index, where retail has gone from worst to first. Part of the reason for this is that consumer spending, which generates take-up of retail space, has held up remarkably well in developed countries. By comparison, business capital spending, which is closely linked to demand for office and industrial space, has fallen sharply.
Low interest rates across the world have encouraged consumers to spend. Nowhere is this more evident than in the housing markets, where sales and prices have surged in most corners of the globe. Home sales generate consumer spending as new homeowners visit furniture and home improvement stores to fix up their new abodes.
Competition among retailers has been intense in the US since the mid-1980s when big-box retailers began spreading across the landscape, siphoning sales from independents, small chains and traditional department stores and valuation services Now this competition is being repeated around the world. Discounters are flourishing, forcing other retailers to find their market niche or face oblivion. Department stores catering to the middle class are losing customers at both ends
It seems as if the world’s middle class no longer wants to be thought of as ‘middle.’ They splurge in expensive boutiques at the same time that they scrimp at the discounters or buy in bulk from the warehouse clubs. In the US, Wal-Mart, Target and a handful of other retailers have cornered the low-price market, while high-end retailers have siphoned wealthy shoppers and those who want to appear wealthy. Squeezed in the middle are department stores such as Sears and JC Penney along with struggling discounters such as Kmart, which are scrambling to defend their shrinking niches.
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New home sales on the urban periphery create demand for shopping centers to serve the new households at the same time that urban centers appear to be getting stronger across the globe. In the past decade, housing growth in and around central business districts has generated demand for shop space of all types. Independents and small chain outlets are well suited to these markets, but traditional big-box retailers are modifying their standard store dimensions and features to establish beachheads. Their strategies include smaller footprints, multiple stories, structured parking, carefully targeted merchandise, designs that are sensitive to the existing streetscape, and participation in mixed-use projects, which can affect investor demand depending on how the projects are laid out.
Besides expanding across the globe and into densely developed neighborhoods, major retailers are courting ethnic households. Perth property valuation companies this growth strategy includes establishing outlets in trade areas with a high percentage of ethnic shoppers and tailoring merchandise selection and services to meet their tastes. In downtown Los Angeles, for example, Hispanic shoppers throng the sidewalks, allowing landlords to charge some of the highest front-foot rents in the world.
In the late 1990s, common wisdom suggested that online retail sales would rather quickly decimate store sales. Analysts made and lost reputations besting each other on how quickly merchandise showrooms and fulfilment centres would replace shopping centres. This, along with perpetual competition among retailers, drove shopping centres to the bottom of investors’ buy lists.